After years of steady growth, 2024 brought a new reality for Ontario’s postsecondary institutions: cooling international demand. While this impact has been felt across Canada, Ontario—home to some of the country’s largest institutions—experienced the most pronounced shifts in application patterns.
Overall, nearly 217,000 international student visa applications were processed for Ontario institutions last year, representing a 49% year-over-year decline1. For comparison, applications to the rest of Canada fell by only 21%. And the number of approvals tells a similar story, with approvals for Ontario institutions dropping by 58% compared to 37% for the rest of Canada.
These outsized declines are partly a function of Ontario’s scale. With more designated learning institutions (DLIs) than any other province and a heavy concentration of international enrolment across sectors, Ontario was always going to be more exposed to shocks caused by shifting student demand. But size alone doesn’t explain the full picture. The scale and shape of the downturn varied across student populations and levels of study, raising an important question: how has weakened demand affected Ontario colleges and universities?
How Did International Student Demand Shift for Ontario Colleges?
In 2023, Ontario institutions accounted for 67% of all international student applications to Canadian colleges, as well as 69% of all Canadian college approvals. But last year, Ontario’s market share dropped to 54% and 57%, respectively.
Nearly 112,000 international student applications were processed for Ontario’s colleges in 2024. Of those, about 57,000 were approved, representing an approval rate of 51%.
Overall, this means that applications fell 60% year-over-year, with approvals down an even starker 67%. Additionally, 2024’s approval rate was 12 percentage points below 2023’s. As reported earlier this year, declines in college demand have largely been attributed to the PAL/TAL caps, new financial proof of requirements, and PGWP changes.
These downward trends arguably impacted Ontario’s largest student populations the most:
College study permit approval rates for students from every top-10 source country dropped by at least 33%, except for students from Vietnam (-8%). Both softened demand and lower approval rates played a major role in this, with most student populations affected by a combination of the two. As an example, applications from Nigeria, the Philippines, and Nepal all fell by at least 40%, with approval rates dropping by at least 14 percentage points—including an unprecedented 42-point drop for Nepalese students.
Ghana was the only top-10 source country where college application volumes increased, up 10% year-over-year. However, a 17-point drop in approval rates led to a 39% decline in actual approvals. Conversely, India saw a five-point increase in approval rates in 2024 compared to 2023, but a 70% drop in applications resulted in far fewer approved students. Chinese and Vietnamese approval rates were also up—by nine and one percentage points, respectively—but students from both countries submitted fewer applications (down 42% and 9%, respectively).
Interestingly, each student population’s share of total approvals to Ontario colleges changed very little, if at all. For example, Indian students accounted for two of every three approvals to these institutions in both 2023 and 20242. By contrast, the most notable shift came from Nepalese students, whose share of college approvals dropped from 7% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. Meanwhile, students from Ghana, China, Vietnam, and Mexico each gained one percentage point in market share year-over-year.
How Did International Undergraduate Student Demand Shift for Ontario Universities?s
Unlike Ontario colleges, Ontario universities did not see a notable change in their market share of the country’s international undergraduate demand. In both 2023 and 2024, Ontario universities accounted for one in every four undergraduate applications, and one in every three undergraduate approvals.
More than 21,000 international student undergraduate applications were processed for Ontario’s universities in 2024. Of those, about 12,000 were approved, representing an approval rate of 56%.
While the drop in new student demand for Ontario universities was less severe than at Ontario colleges, the declines were still significant. Applications fell by 39% year-over-year and approvals dropped by 45%. As a result, the 2024 approval rate for international applicants to Ontario undergraduate programs was five percentage points lower than in 2023.
Unlike at the college level, the undergraduate space saw a clearer reshuffling of which student populations held the largest share of approvals:
The most immediate shift came at the top: after two years as the leading new student population for Ontario universities, Indian students dropped to second place. Indian students made up 31% of undergraduate approvals in 2023, but just 18% in 2024. Over the same period, Chinese students saw their share rise from 18% to 26%. Both student populations saw a jump in approval rates—up seven percentage points for Indian students and four percentage points for Chinese students—but application volumes dropped by 71% for the former and 25% for the latter.
As at the college level, Ghanaian students were the only top-10 cohort to see demand growth for study permits to university undergraduate programs in Ontario. In 2024, applications from these students rose by 62% over the previous year, but a 29-point drop in approval rates resulted in a 40% decline in actual approvals. On the other side of the story, Pakistani students saw their approval rates rise by nine percentage points, but a 37% application drop led to 18% fewer actual approvals.
How Did International Postgraduate Student Demand Shift for Ontario Universities?
Compared to Ontario college and undergraduate study levels, postgraduate studies at Ontario universities stand out for their sharp demand growth in 2024, with applications growing by 32% year-over-year. This stands out against the rest of the country, where postgraduate applications fell by 20%.
Nearly 29,000 international student postgraduate applications were processed for Ontario’s universities in 2024. Of those, about 15,000 were approved, representing an approval rate of 51%.
This growth was driven entirely by the master’s level, which saw a 37% year-over-year increase. In contrast, doctoral applications dropped by 21%. Master’s programs accounted for 94% of Ontario’s postgraduate applications and 91% of approvals in 2024—up from 91% and 89%, respectively, in 2023.
This surge in demand reshaped the top 10 source countries for postgraduate students at Ontario universities:
Among the top 10 source countries for postgraduate university applications, only Indian students saw a decline, with demand falling 16% year-over-year. In contrast, applications surged from Ghana (+234%), Nepal (+486%), and the Philippines (+2,371%). These spikes were likely driven by the exemption of master’s programs from Ontario’s 2024 PAL/TAL caps. With all study levels now included in the 2025 caps, it wouldn’t be surprising to see application volumes from these historically college-oriented markets shift back toward the college sector. However, it’s also worth noting that PGWP eligibility changes may somewhat mitigate this shift.
The 51% approval rate for postgraduate applications to Ontario universities represented a drop of 21 percentage points over 2023, a larger decline than at any other study level. This was likely the result of the surge in volume, as well as the overall decline in approval rates observed across all study levels in 2024. Looking at postgraduate approval rate changes for top new student populations, approval rates rose slightly for Chinese students, up two percentage points year-over-year, but fell by five points for Americans and eight for Indians. The remaining top-10 student populations all saw double-digit declines, topping out at a 56-point drop for Filipino students.
How Capio Can Help Your Institution in 2025 and Beyond?
In a year shaped by demand volatility and policy change, knowing where international interest is growing or pulling back is essential. Capio makes it easier to cut through the noise with the most up-to-date data on global study permit trends, approval rates, and application volumes. You can pinpoint where demand is rising, which programs students are prioritizing, and how your institution stacks up against national benchmarks.
Capio’s Insights Dashboard brings together complex government datasets and distills them into clear, actionable reports. Whether you’re aligning program offerings with labour market needs, planning marketing efforts by region, or tracking how policy shifts are impacting specific markets, Capio helps your institution root its decision-making processes with data in order to move from insight to action with greater speed and confidence.
Key Findings Today
- International college applications to Ontario colleges fell 60% in 2024 compared to 2023. With such a steep decline, institutions must prepare for both intensified competition within and outside of the province and reduced volume from core markets like India and Nigeria. Strengthening diversification strategies is no longer optional.
- Only 56% of prospective undergraduate students were approved in 2024. Universities should revisit how they support students from large emerging markets—like Pakistan or Ghana—where interest remains but success rates dropped, and adjust their recruitment/advising tactics accordingly.
- The master’s level saw a surge in applications in 2024, likely an outlier due to this level’s exemption from the PAL caps. With caps expanded to include graduate programs in 2025, institutions will need to closely scrutinize applicant intent and program fit to ensure enrolments reflect genuine master’s-level demand.
- All data courtesy of IRCC. For the purposes of this article, all withdrawn applications have been removed from the data.
- There was a slight dip in market share among Indian students, who accounted for 67% of Ontario-based college approvals in 2023, and 66% in 2024.
